things don't get bad all at once - so what's going on, who took my boom, where is my Alberta Advantage? . . so easy to blame U.S. financial markets, the dollar, and Royalty Review, but I don't care who is to blame - I want to know which way the wind is blowing, and how to fill my sails; . . . I talk to seismic service operators, landmen, money guys, architects and construction firms . . . they feel shifts first; . . Jack McNeill at McNeill Land, closing up shop to explore new business ventures after a great run - things are bad, business is drying up, new orders scarce. Exploration companies are busy, diverting attention outside Alberta - that keeps head office jobs here but pity the provincial treasury in a couple of years! . . . no one is saying 'NEP' out loud just yet, but many are seriously concerned.
I talked with Mike Tims, Chairman at Peters & Co. - he's bullish on mid-term prospects for oil and long- term for natural gas, but in the short term he is truly uncertain. I talked with Bob Hamilton at RBC Private Counsel Inc., normally a guy who freely offers quotes, tight-lipped - admitting he isn't sure which way things are going but echoing concerns I've heard from many sources - small town rural Alberta is hurting severely . . . .I've been talking to quite a few lately - trying to gauge whether Ed Stelmach's Royalty Review is a blip or a catastrophe . . . architects and interior designers see it early too - projects cancelled, put on hold, downsized, re-thought, re-quoted, re-budgeted . . and then put on hold again; this phenomenon is part of every major cycle-change, every paradigm shift, it affects small and medium sized firms first; . . . Brad Regier at Clark Builders tells me clients are re- thinking projects, postponing our outright cancelling plans - still an abundance of work- but this shift in momentum worth watching. Regier tells me the biggest bottleneck in construction remains 'drywall, glazing and mechanical'. Maybe a slow-down will help those sub-trades play catch up; . . .
My business has a strong office leasing focus. In the last couple of months the number of options available for tenants has gone from few to some, by no means an indicator of a jump in vacancy rate, but Landlords are slight less greedy; I see a shift to a Tenant-driven market in the 2nd qtr. and that the Penny-Lane mall site will not see a whole dug anytime soon - that 2 million sq. ft. project will have to wait till the next cycle - expect a large surface parking lot soon.
Mark Kolke . . . author, columnist . . reader, writer, editor, facilitator, coach, public speaker - writes wherever he is working or playing - he lives in Calgary, plays in Maui, works in Houston, plays in Maui, works in Los Angeles, plays in Maui . . you get the picture. Work, life and play are migrating slowly, inexorably, in the direction of Maui. Whether a crisp journalistic piece or a door-stop weight proposal, he writes as he speaks - clearly, effectively and passionately in the following areas: oil & gas, commercial real estate, hotels/tourism, residential real estate, education, social services, persons with disabilities, retail, golf, government, politics, relationships. Mark writes articles, columns, newsletters and proposals. His story telling writing style proves most effective when writing about the things which matter most to him personally and in which he has direct involvement.
Mark Kolke is a freelance writer and commercial real estate consultant in Calgary. He can be contacted at: MaxCommCom munications
